We can see that mortgage interest rates are high, Housing Inventory is high, and Days-on-Market (DOM) is high. So is the Housing Market on the verge of collapse in Portland, Oregon, and the surrounding cities?
Compared to 2019 to 2021, the Homes Sold trend in 2022 is definitely ending much lower. When we look at the annual totals, we can see that the 17,365 homes sold in 2022 are:
2,533 homes less than in 2019
3,742 homes less than in 2020
4,996 homes less than in 2021
While this is not great to see, it does make sense. That's the increase in Housing Inventory and DOM. And we know the rise in interest rates is having an effect; we see it daily in the listings. Now we get to track the effects of these indicators on the actual number of homes sold.
Additionally, if I were a home buyer, I would see these trends and start looking for a home: less competition, more inventory from which to choose, and better price points. The interest rates are coming down, but you can buy down points or refinance later when the rates are lower. And some sellers are even offering to help buy down the rate, although that will end here quickly as rates go down.
The biggest takeaway is that even with these sky-high interest rates and buyer burnout from the chaos of the last two years, homes will continue to be bought and sold. Too many buyers and sellers are waiting for that "perfect" moment, and there really isn't one. It's a cliche but the perfect time to buy or sell a home is when you need/want to buy or sell. Waiting to buy or sell when everyone else is doing so creates these chaotic Housing Markets. We need to use all 12 months of the year, and every year has the potential to be the "perfect" year because real estate is a long-term investment.
This video is part of a new series called Trend Watch, where I create a set of videos featuring the most critical Housing Market trends and run them every month so that you can understand how trends work and watch the changes month by month.
I hope you find this information helpful.
Please remember I'm always here for any questions. 😃
Take care, Sheryl